Davvero il Cav.Cazzuola è imbattibile? Ultimi sondaggi di Predict09.eu

[INTRODUZIONE] Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).

Nella introduzione si trovano le previsioni per tutto il parlamento europeo, come risultante dai sondaggi nei singoli stati. Se vi interessa, cliccate in alto sul link [INTRODUZIONE]. La metodologia, (noiosa e per addetti ai lavori) è riportata al link [statistical model]. Infine, la parte che ci interessa di più, perchè contiene i sondaggi per singolo paese, inclusa l'Italia, è riportata sotto [analysis by member state]

ANALYSIS BY MEMBER STATE - The tables on this page show the mean predicted vote-shares and MEPs for each national party in June 2009, compared to the vote-shares and MEPs the parties won in the previous European Parliament elections. The parties in government in each member state are indicated with an asterisk. Also, with a reduction in the total seats in the Parliament from the current 785 to 736 most member states will have fewer MEPs after June. As a result, more parties will lose seats than win seats.

Some of these member state-level predictions should be interpreted with caution, as it is not clear yet which parties or coalitions of parties will stand in the upcoming elections in some countries. It is also not yet clear how the current economic crisis will affect voting behaviour and turnout, which might alter the election outcomes considerably in some countries. As a result, these member state-level predictions are likely to be less accurate than the aggregate-level predictions of the seat-shares of the European political groups.

Italy

Italian European elections are notoriously difficult to predict because of the changing party and coalition line-up in elections. For example, this will be the first election battle between the two new large parties: Berlusconi’s The People of Freedom (PdL) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD). Berlusconi’s party is well ahead of the PD in the latest opinion polls, but our statistical model predicts that since the PdL are currently in government that Berlusconi's winning margin is unlikely to be larger than 10 percentage points. On the other side, we expect the PD to do worse this time than in 2004, and for the PD delegation to be split between the Socialist group and the Liberal (ALDE) group.

 

Ora, se i sondaggi di questo istituo fossero corretti, si noterebbe un calo del PdL rispetto ai precedenti massimi, che andavano oltre il 40%; una risalita del PD dal 23% al 27%; un leggero ridimensionamento delle ambizioni dell'IdV dell'8/9% al 6,5%.

Infine, sommando - con logica proporzionale -  a destra il PdL, la Lega e l'Autonomia, si arriverebbe ad un 48,3%. I sogni del 50%+1 di Berlusconi sarebbero ridimensionati sia come coalizione, che come PdL (il 36% è ben lontano dal 50%+1, e la tendenza non è più splendida come una volta.

Sommando, a sinistra, il PD, l'IdV, RC, Sin. e Libertà, Bonino e SVP, si arriverebbe al 44,5%, quindi 3,8 punti sotto la coalizione dei berlusconidi.

Rimangono due variabili impazzite:

-a) la posizione che assumerà l'UDC

-b) la capacità tattica dei partiti d'opposizione di stare uniti, senza veti incrociati, almeno per il tempo strettamente necessario per sistemare, una volta e per tutte, i problemi-chiave della nostra "democrazia": giustizia, conflitto d'interessi, assetto TV, legge elettorale.